*Replication code for wave B of the 2021 main study in "Recocking with Reality: Correcting National Overconfidence in a Rising Power" by Haifeng Huang

*Prepared in August 2025


/****** Variables

pew1: respondents' answers about the Pew survey result in wave a
seasia1: respondents' answers about the Southeast Asia survey result in wave a
africa1: respondents' answers about the Africa survey result in wave a
gallup1: respondents' answers about the Gallup survey result in wave a
taiwan1: respondents' answers about the Taiwan survey result in wave a
hongkong1: respondents' answers about the Hong Kong survey result in wave a
selfimage1: pew1 + africa1 + seasia1 + gallup1 + taiwan1 + hongkong1 
selfimage1_sc: selfimage1/600
pew2: respondents' answers about the Pew survey result in wave b
seasia2: respondents' answers about the Southeast Asia survey result in wave b
africa2: respondents' answers about the Africa survey result in wave b
gallup2: respondents' answers about the Gallup survey result in wave b
taiwan2: respondents' answers about the Taiwan survey result in wave b
hongkong2: respondents' answers about the Hong Kong survey result in wave b
selfimage2: pew2 + africa2 + seasia2 + gallup2 + taiwan2 + hongkong2
overest2= selfimage2-8.1-32.7-24-56.5-16.5-32 (selfimage2-correct answers for each question)
gen overest2_sc=overest2/6
latino: respondents' answers about the Latin American survey in wave b
vaccine: respondents' answers about the vaccine survey in wave b

female: 0 or 1
age: age group
age_sc: age group rescaled to range from 0 to 1
education: education level 
education_scaled: education level rescaled to range from 0 to 1 
income: income status
income_scaled: income status rescaled to range from 0 to 1
life: life satisfaction
life_scaled: life satisfaction rescaled to range from 0 to 1
pinterest: political interest
pinterest_scaled: political interest rescaled to range from 0 to 1
ccpmember: membership in the Chinese Communist Party (0 or 1)

nationalstatemedia: national state media as a major information source (0 or 1)
localstatemedia: local state media as a major information source (0 or 1)
commercialmedia: commercial media as a major information source (0 or 1)
socialmedia: social media as a major information source (0 or 1)
foreignmedia: foreign media as a major information source (0 or 1)
personalcommunication: interpersonal communication as a major information source (0 or 1)

visitdeveloped: had experience visiting developed countris (0 or 1)
visitdeveloping: had experience visiting developing countris (0 or 1)
visithmt: had experience visiting Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan (0 ot 1)

pride: degree of pride for being a Chinese
pride_scaled: pride rescaled to range from 0 to 1
citizenship: willingness to choose Chinese citizenship over any other citizenship in the world
citizenship_scaled: citizenship rescaled to range from 0 to 1
nationalism: (citizenship_scaled + pride_scaled)/2

truthtreatment: treated (0 or 1)

china2: satisfaction with China's overall situation in wave b
china2_sc: china2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
future2: optimism about China's future in wave b 
future2_sc: future2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
polity2: assessment of China's political system in wave b 
polity2_sc: polity2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
govtrust2: trust in government in wave b
govtrust2_sc: govtrust2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
chinamodel2: evaluation of the ``China model'' in wave b
chinamodel2_sc: chinamodel2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
chinadomestic2_aggregate: (china2_sc + future2_sc + polity2_sc + chinamodel2_sc + govtrust2_sc)/5
beltroad2: optimism about the Belt and Road initiatve in wave b
beltroad2_sc: beltroad2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
destiny2: perception about the influence of the "Community of Shared Future (Common Destiny)" concept in wave b
destiny2_sc: destiny2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
praise2: perception of international opinion on China's handling of the Covid-19 outbreak in wave b
praise2_sc: praise2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
unification2: optimism about peaceful unification between Taiwan and mainland China in wave b
unification2_sc: unification2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
hksystem2: confidence about the success of China's institutional arrangement for Hong Kong in wave b
hksystem2_sc: hksystem2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
chinaexternal2_aggregate: (unification2_sc + hksystem2_sc + destiny2_sc + beltroad2_sc + praise2_sc)/5

wolf2: support for the "wolf warrior diplomacy" in wave b
wolf2_sc: wolf2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
military2: support for using military in international affairs in wave b 
military2_sc: military2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
origin2: support for investigating the potential domestic origin of Covid-19 virus in wave b
origin2_sc: origin2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
turnover2: support for orderly transition of national leadership in wave b
turnover2_sc: turnover2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
oneleader2: agreement with the statement that it is unhealthy for a country's fate to rest on the prestige of one or two people in wave b
oneleader2_sc: oneleader2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
democracy2: agreement with the statement that democracy is the best available political system in wave b
democracy2_sc: democracy2 rescaled to range from 0 to 1
democracy2_support2: (oneleader2_sc +  democracy2_sc)/2
track: China on the right track
track_sc: track rescaled to range from 0 to 1
toppower: China should vie for the position of top power in the world
toppower_sc: toppower rescaled to range from 0 to 1
onevoice: a healthy society should not have just one voice
onevoice_sc: onevoice rescaled to range from 0 to 1
thinkfirst: what Americans think first (outcome 1: human rights; outcome 2: political system; outcome 3: threat; outcome 4: bilateral relationship; outcome 5: Covid-19; outcome 6: economy)

region: eastern China (3), central China (2), or western China (1)
occupation: respondent's occupation

******/




********** Figure 4 **********

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

grstyle init
grstyle set plain
grstyle color background white
grstyle clockdir legend_position 12
grstyle linestyle legend none

twoway (hist overest2_sc if truthtreatment==0,  xline(34.5, lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) bcolor(gs7%50) bin(40)) (hist overest2_sc if truthtreatment==1,  xline(12.9, lcolor(dkgreen) lpattern(solid)) bcolor(green%50) bin(40)), xlabel(-25 "-25" 0 "0"  25 "25" 50 "50" 75 "75")  xtitle(Overestimation in the 6 Original Questions (Percentage Points Per Question), margin(small)) text(.052 12.8 "mean=12.9", place(w) color(dkgreen)) text(.052 34.4 "mean=34.5", place(w) color(black)) legend(order(2 "Treated in Wave A" 1 "Control in Wave A") rows(1) size(relative3)) 

graph save 2021b_overest_io.gph, replace


twoway (hist latino if truthtreatment==0, xline(63.5, lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) bcolor(gs7%50) bin(40)) (hist latino if truthtreatment==1, xline(44.3, lcolor(dkgreen) lpattern(solid)) bcolor(green%50) bin(40)), xlabel(0 "0" 25 "25" 50 "50" 75 "75" 100 "100") xtitle(Latin America: Positive Views of China, margin(small)) text(.076 44.2 "mean=44.3", place(w) color(dkgreen)) text(.076 63.4 "mean=63.5", place(w) color(black))  legend(order(2 "Treated in Wave A" 1 "Control in Wave A") rows(1) size(relative3)) 

graph save 2021b_latino_io.gph, replace


twoway (hist vaccine if truthtreatment==0, xline(69.5, lcolor(black) lpattern(solid)) bcolor(gs7%50) bin(40)) (hist vaccine if truthtreatment==1, xline(55.5, lcolor(dkgreen)  lpattern(solid)) bcolor(green%50) bin(40)), xlabel(0 "0"  25 "25" 50 "50" 75 "75" 100 "100") xtitle(World: Confidence in Chinese Covid-19 Vaccines, margin(small)) text(.092 55.4 "mean=55.5", place(w) color(dkgreen)) text(.092 69.5 "mean=69.5", place(c) color(black))  legend(order(2 "Treated in Wave A" 1 "Control in Wave A") rows(1) size(relative3)) 

graph save 2021b_vaccine_io.gph, replace

**combine the three together 

grc1leg2 2021b_overest_io.gph 2021b_latino_io.gph 2021b_vaccine_io.gph, xsize(8) ysize(11) rows(3) position(6)

graph save 2021b_newpredictions_io.gph, replace


grstyle clear



**********  Figure 5 **********


clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

**domestic/overall

grstyle init
grstyle set plain
grstyle color background white
grstyle clockdir legend_position 6
grstyle linestyle legend none

eststo clear

eststo c1:  quietly reg china2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo c2:  quietly reg china2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo f1:  quietly reg future2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo f2:  quietly reg future2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust  

eststo p1:  quietly reg polity2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo p2:  quietly reg polity2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust    

eststo gt1:  quietly reg govtrust2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo gt2:  quietly reg govtrust2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust    

eststo cm1:  quietly reg chinamodel2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo cm2:  quietly reg chinamodel2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo da1:  quietly reg chinadomestic2_aggregate  truthtreatment, robust
eststo da2:  quietly reg chinadomestic2_aggregate truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust

coefplot(c1, label(No covariates) msymbol(D)) (c2, label(With covariates)  msymbol(O)), bylabel(China Situation) || ///
 (f1) (f2), bylabel(Future Prospects) || ///
  (p1) (p2), bylabel(Political System) ||  ///
   (cm1) (cm2), bylabel(China Model) || ///
  (gt1) (gt2), bylabel(Trust in Government) || ///
   (da1) (da2), bylabel(Overall Aggregate) ||, ///
drop(_cons selfimage1_sc  nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled) ///
xline(0, lpattern(dash) lcolor(black) lwidth(thin))  byopts(compact) bycoefs xlabel(-.12[.03]0) ///
legend(order(2 "No covariates" 4 "With covariates") rows(1) size(relative3)) ///
title("Overall/Domestic Evaluations", size(relative4) margin(medium)) 

graph save 2021b_domestic_treat_io, replace
 
eststo clear


**external

eststo b1:  quietly reg beltroad2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo b2:  quietly reg beltroad2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo d1:  quietly reg destiny2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo d2:  quietly reg destiny2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo pr1:  quietly reg praise2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo pr2:  quietly reg praise2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo u1:  quietly reg unification2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo u2:  quietly reg unification2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo h1:  quietly reg hksystem2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo h2:  quietly reg hksystem2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo ea1:  quietly reg chinaexternal2_aggregate  truthtreatment, robust
eststo ea2:  quietly reg chinaexternal2_aggregate truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

coefplot(b1, label(No covariates) msymbol(D)) (b2, label(With covariates)  msymbol(O)), bylabel(Belt & Road) || ///
  (d1) (d2), bylabel(Shared Future) ||  ///
   (pr1) (pr2), bylabel(Covid-19 Opinion) || ///
      (u1) (u2), bylabel(Taiwan Reunification) || ///
    (h1) (h2), bylabel(Hong Kong System) || ///
	      (ea1) (ea2), bylabel(External Aggregate) ||, /// 
drop(_cons selfimage1_sc  nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled) ///
xline(0, lpattern(dash) lcolor(black) lwidth(thin))  byopts(compact) bycoefs  xlabel(-.12[.03]0) ///
legend(order(2 "No covariates" 4 "With covariates") rows(1) size(relative3)) ///
title("External Expectations", size(relative4) margin(medium)) 
 
graph save 2021b_external_treat_io, replace
 

**combine

grc1leg2 2021b_domestic_treat_io.gph 2021b_external_treat_io.gph, position(6)

graph save 2021b_combined_treat_io, replace 

grstyle clear
eststo clear




********** Figure 6 **********


clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

forval i=1/6 {
eststo ame`i'1: quietly mlogit thinkfirst i.truthtreatment, robust
margins, dydx(i.truthtreatment) post predict(outcome(`i'))
estimates store ame`i'1
}

forval i=1/6 {
eststo ame`i'2: quietly mlogit thinkfirst i.truthtreatment selfimage1_sc  i.female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  i.ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled i.nationalstatemedia i.localstatemedia  i.commercialmedia i.socialmedia i.foreignmedia i.personalcommunication i.visitdeveloped i.visitdeveloping i.visithmt, robust
margins, dydx(i.truthtreatment) post predict(outcome(`i'))
estimates store ame`i'2
}


grstyle init
grstyle color background white
grstyle clockdir legend_position 6
grstyle linestyle legend none

coefplot(ame11, label(No covariates) msymbol(D)) (ame12, label(With covariates)  msymbol(O)), bylabel(Human Rights) || ///
  (ame21) (ame22), bylabel(Political System) ||  ///
    (ame31) (ame32), bylabel(Threat) ||  ///
	  (ame41) (ame42), bylabel(Bilateral Relationship) ||  ///
	    (ame51) (ame52), bylabel(Covid-19) ||  ///
		   (ame61) (ame62), bylabel(Economy) ||, ///
xline(0, lpattern(dash) lcolor(black) lwidth(thin)) byopts(compact) bycoefs ///
legend(order(2 "No covariates" 4 "With covariates") rows(1) size(relative3)) 

graph save 2021b_thinkfirst_io.gph, replace

grstyle clear



**** Figure A8 *******

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

grstyle init
grstyle set plain
grstyle color background white
grstyle clockdir legend_position 6
grstyle linestyle legend none

eststo np1:  quietly reg overest2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo np2:  quietly reg overest2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled, robust   

eststo np3:  quietly reg latino  truthtreatment, robust
eststo np4:  quietly reg latino  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled, robust   

eststo np5:  quietly reg vaccine  truthtreatment, robust
eststo np6:  quietly reg vaccine  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled, robust  

coefplot(np1, label(No covariates) msymbol(D)) (np2, label(With covariates)  msymbol(O)), bylabel(Overestimation in 6 Original Questions) || ///
 (np3) (np4), bylabel(Positive Views in Latin America) || ///
  (np5) (np6), bylabel(Global Confidence in Chinese Vaccines) ||,  ///
drop(_cons  selfimage1_sc   nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled) ///
xline(0, lpattern(dash) lcolor(black) lwidth(thin))  byopts(compact) bycoefs ///
legend(order(2 "No covariates" 4 "With covariates") rows(1)) 

graph save 2021b_newpredictions_treat_io.gph, replace
 
eststo clear

grstyle clear




********** Figure A9 **********

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

grstyle init
grstyle set plain
grstyle color background white
grstyle clockdir legend_position 6
grstyle linestyle legend none

eststo ww1:  quietly reg wolf2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo ww2:  quietly reg wolf2_sc truthtreatment selfimage1_sc nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled, robust   

eststo ml1:  quietly reg military2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo ml2:  quietly reg military2_sc truthtreatment selfimage1_sc nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled, robust  

eststo co1:  quietly reg origin2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo co2:  quietly reg origin2_sc truthtreatment selfimage1_sc nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled, robust   

eststo to1:  quietly reg turnover2_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo to2:  quietly reg turnover2_sc truthtreatment selfimage1_sc nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled, robust   

eststo d1:  quietly reg democracy_support2  truthtreatment, robust
eststo d2:  quietly reg democracy_support2 truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust  

coefplot(ww1, label(No covariates) msymbol(D)) (ww2, label(With covariates)  msymbol(O)), bylabel(Wolf Warrier Diplomacy) || ///
 (ml1) (ml2), bylabel(Use Military) || ///
   (co1) (co2), bylabel(Covid Domestic Investigation) || ///
 (to1) (to2), bylabel(Leadership Turnover) || ///
 (d1) (d2), bylabel(Support Democracy) ||, ///
drop(_cons selfimage1_sc  nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled) ///
xline(0, lpattern(dash) lcolor(black) lwidth(thin))  byopts(compact) bycoefs ///
legend(order(2 "No covariates" 4 "With covariates") rows(1)) 
 
graph save 2021b_policies_treat.io.gph, replace
 
grstyle clear

eststo clear



********** Figure A10 **********

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

grstyle init
grstyle set plain
grstyle color background white
grstyle clockdir legend_position 6
grstyle linestyle legend none


eststo gt1:  quietly reg track_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo gt2:  quietly reg track_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust     

eststo ww1:  quietly reg toppower_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo ww2:  quietly reg toppower_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust     

eststo co1:  quietly reg onevoice_sc  truthtreatment, robust
eststo co2:  quietly reg onevoice_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust     

coefplot(gt1, label(No covariates) msymbol(D)) (gt2, label(With covariates)  msymbol(O)), bylabel(Right Track (Overall Evaluation)) || ///
  (ww1) (ww2), bylabel(Top Power (Foreign Policy Preference)) ||  ///
   (co1) (co2), bylabel(>1 Voice (Domestic Policy Preference)) ||, ///
drop(_cons   selfimage1_sc  nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled) ///
xline(0, lpattern(dash) lcolor(black) lwidth(thin))  byopts(compact) bycoefs ///
legend(order(2 "No covariates" 4 "With covariates") rows(1)) 

graph save 2021b_newpolicies_treat.io, replace
 
grstyle clear

eststo clear




********** Table A5 **********

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

keep if waveb==1

ttest selfimage1 if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest female if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest education if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest income if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest ccpmember if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest age if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest life if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest pinterest if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest nationalstatemedia   if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest localstatemedia  if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest commercialmedia if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest socialmedia if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest foreignmedia if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest personalcommunication if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest visitdeveloped if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest visitdeveloping if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 

ttest visithmt if truthtreatment==0 | truthtreatment==1, by(truthtreatment) unequal 



********** Table A6 **********

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

logit waveb truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust

esttab using wave_b_participation.tex, replace b(3) se(3) pr2 label star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) booktabs compress title(Correlates of Participation in the Wave B Survey \label{tab: wave_b_participation})




********** Table A7 **********

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

eststo clear

eststo c2:  quietly reg china2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo f2:  quietly reg future2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust  

eststo p2:  quietly reg polity2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust    

eststo cm2:  quietly reg chinamodel2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo gt2:  quietly reg govtrust2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust    

eststo da2:  quietly reg chinadomestic2_aggregate truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust

esttab using treatmenteffects2021b_overall_io.tex, replace b(3) se(3) ar2 label star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) booktabs compress title(Treatment Effects on Overall/Domestic Evaluation in Wave B \label{tab: treatmenteffects_overall_waveb})  

eststo clear



********** Table A8 **********

clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

eststo b2:  quietly reg beltroad2_sc  truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo d2:  quietly reg destiny2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo pr2:  quietly reg praise2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo u2:  quietly reg unification2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo h2:  quietly reg hksystem2_sc  truthtreatment  selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

eststo ea2:  quietly reg chinaexternal2_aggregate truthtreatment selfimage1_sc female  age_scaled education_scaled income_scaled ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled nationalstatemedia localstatemedia  commercialmedia socialmedia foreignmedia personalcommunication visitdeveloped visitdeveloping visithmt, robust   

esttab using treatmenteffects2021b_external_io.tex, replace b(3) se(3) ar2 label star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) booktabs compress title(Treatment Effects on External Evaluation in Wave B \label{tab: treatmenteffects_external_waveb})

eststo clear



********** Table A9 **********


clear
use overconfidence2021_b.dta

forval i=1/6 {
eststo ame`i'2: quietly mlogit thinkfirst i.truthtreatment selfimage1_sc  i.female income_scaled age_scaled education_scaled  i.ccpmember life_scaled pinterest_scaled i.nationalstatemedia i.localstatemedia  i.commercialmedia i.socialmedia i.foreignmedia i.personalcommunication i.visitdeveloped i.visitdeveloping i.visithmt, robust
margins, dydx(i.truthtreatment) post predict(outcome(`i'))
estimates store ame`i'2
}

esttab using thinkfirst_io.tex, replace b(3) se(3) pr2 label star(* 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) booktabs compress title(Treatment Effects on Thinking First (2) \label{tab: treatmenteffects_thinkfirst_io_mlogit}) 


eststo clear


***

clear

exit




